President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to tighten immigration controls and launch mass deportations has sent shockwaves through immigrant communities and the industries that depend on them. Though no concrete policies have yet been implemented, the looming uncertainty has already created ripples of fear and economic distress across the nation, particularly in areas with a high concentration of immigrant workers.

Sam Sanchez, a seasoned restaurateur and advocate for immigrant-friendly policies, recently visited Chicago’s Little Village, a bustling neighborhood often referred to as the “Mexico of the Midwest.” There, he encountered a sobering reality: “Some restaurants told me their sales are down by 50%,” Sanchez revealed. “People are afraid to even walk the streets right now. There’s a palpable sense of fear—fear of being targeted, fear of being separated from their families, and fear of what’s to come.”

Sanchez, who also serves on the American Business Immigration Coalition, fears the broader implications for the restaurant industry. “If employees start hesitating to come to work, businesses will suffer immensely. Without a workforce, restaurants will close. And this isn’t just about one industry—millions of undocumented workers support sectors critical to the U.S. economy.”

A Workforce Under Threat

An estimated 10.5 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States, with about 8.5 million employed, according to Giovanni Peri, an economist and director of the Global Migration Center at UC Davis. Industries such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, and health care rely heavily on this labor force. Mass deportations, coupled with tightened border controls and the repeal of protections introduced under President Biden, could have devastating consequences.

Peri warns that a reduced labor supply in these sectors could lead to widespread economic disruptions. “If these industries lose workers during a time when they’re already struggling to fill vacancies, we will likely see a contraction. Businesses will shut down, growth will slow, and the economy as a whole will shrink.”

The agriculture industry, in particular, faces an acute crisis. Ron Estrada, CEO of Farmworker Justice, highlights the vital role immigrant labor plays in ensuring the stability of the nation’s food supply. “Undocumented farmworkers are the backbone of our food system,” Estrada explained, adding that approximately 85% of foreign-born farmworkers have lived in the U.S. for over a decade. “If mass deportations slash the agricultural workforce in half, it would lead to food shortages, waste, and increased prices at grocery stores.”

Yet, despite the pressing need, there remains no legal pathway for undocumented farmworkers to obtain permanent residency. Existing programs, such as the H-2A visa for seasonal agricultural work, fall short of addressing the industry’s year-round demands.

The Economic Ripple Effect

While proponents of mass deportations argue that reducing the undocumented population could ease housing and consumer demand, economists caution that the loss of workers would far outweigh any potential benefits. Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, projects that a rollback of immigration to pre-2020 levels could result in 100,000 fewer jobs added each month. “Tighter labor markets for low-skilled workers would undoubtedly emerge, causing challenges for businesses and broader economic stagnation,” he noted.

The U.S. labor force’s dependence on immigrant workers was starkly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. The restaurant industry, among the hardest hit, struggled to recover as labor shortages persisted long after restrictions were lifted. Sanchez recalls how some establishments could only operate a few days a week due to a lack of workers. “The people willing to work were often undocumented immigrants who couldn’t access unemployment benefits,” he said. “These individuals have been contributing to the economy for decades, paying taxes, and doing jobs many native-born workers are unwilling to take.”

This reluctance among American-born workers is well-documented. Estrada pointed to a 2011 effort in North Carolina to recruit local farmworkers. Out of nearly 270 applicants, only seven completed the harvest season. “It’s clear that few Americans are willing to take on these demanding roles,” Estrada said.

Uncertain Futures and Mounting Anxiety

As political rhetoric escalates, the human cost of these policies looms large. For immigrants like Joanne Eriaku, a single mother and entrepreneur seeking asylum after fleeing Uganda, the uncertainty is overwhelming. Despite building a new life and running three businesses in the U.S., Eriaku fears for her children’s futures. “There’s a lack of nuance in how immigrants are being portrayed,” she lamented. “My sons, who have grown up here, might be forced to navigate a system that could tear them away from the only home they know.”

Her eldest son, nearing the age of 21, will soon face the daunting challenge of applying for asylum independently. “I want him to finish school and have a chance to thrive,” Eriaku said. “I don’t think he could survive being sent back to Uganda.”

This sentiment resonates across immigrant communities, where fear of deportation and separation is compounded by the unpredictability of policy shifts. Despite these challenges, many immigrants remain hopeful that bipartisan efforts could pave the way for meaningful immigration reform.

A Costly Endeavor

Critics of Trump’s deportation plans have also highlighted the financial and logistical hurdles involved. Julia Pollak, Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter, notes that large-scale deportations often come with unintended economic consequences, including reduced employment opportunities for native-born workers in affected regions. “Labor shortages are already dire in certain states,” she said. “Further enforcement could deepen these issues, particularly in areas where employers rely heavily on immigrant workers.”

While Trump’s team has promised sweeping actions, experts remain skeptical about the feasibility of such plans. Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US, characterized many of the previous administration’s policies as “symbolic PR stunts” rather than transformative measures. “The logistical and economic costs of mass deportations are immense,” he said. “It’s likely that the administration will pursue limited actions, declare victory, and shift focus to other priorities.”

A Nation at a Crossroads

As the U.S. grapples with the economic and social implications of stricter immigration policies, the fate of millions hangs in the balance. From Chicago’s Little Village to rural farms and bustling cities, the specter of mass deportations threatens not only the livelihoods of undocumented workers but also the industries and communities they sustain. Amid the uncertainty, one thing is clear: the decisions made in the coming months will shape the nation’s economy and identity for years to come.