New York — In a surprising twist, Donald Trump’s social media venture, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), is experiencing a remarkable resurgence on Wall Street, as investors closely monitor his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election. The stock market has long been intertwined with political sentiment, and TMTG’s recent performance is a testament to this phenomenon.
For much of the past year, TMTG appeared to be in a steep decline. Its stock hit rock bottom on September 23, 2024, plummeting to $12.15 per share—an 82% drop from its previous high. The collapse had fueled skepticism about the company’s future, particularly given its lack of new product announcements or major financial milestones.
However, in the three weeks following this nadir, the stock has undergone a meteoric rebound, soaring nearly 150% and more than doubling its share price. In just the past week, the stock surged nearly 50%, with an additional 18% increase on Monday, October 14. This kind of rally is rare and has ignited renewed interest in the stock, which has long been considered highly speculative, even compared to other so-called “meme stocks” that attract significant attention from online traders.
The dramatic rise has not been driven by any company-specific developments, such as new revenue streams, product releases, or endorsements from financial analysts. Instead, the stock’s turnaround appears to be tied almost exclusively to the perceived odds of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. As the former president ramps up his 2024 election campaign, traders are betting heavily on his political future, believing that his victory could significantly enhance the prospects of his media company.
“The stock is behaving as a proxy for the election,” explained Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management. “If Trump wins, there’s a belief that this stock could skyrocket. If he loses, the consensus is that it may be worthless.”
Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns the social media platform Truth Social, is deeply linked to Trump’s personal brand. As the company’s largest shareholder, Trump holds over 114.75 million shares, and his continued involvement in the platform is seen as crucial to its valuation. His presence on Truth Social is central to its identity, as he remains the platform’s most popular user.
The value of Trump’s stake in the company has more than doubled since September 23, growing by an estimated $1.7 billion to $3.4 billion. This resurgence reflects not only the rise in stock price but also growing political sentiment in favor of Trump. Betting markets such as PredictIt, which track political odds, have shown a shift toward Trump, erasing earlier leads held by incumbent political figures.
Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida who has spent decades analyzing capital markets, described the stock’s 100% rise as nothing short of “stunning.” However, Ritter, like many financial experts, remains cautious. He attributes the spike to the heightened attention that meme stocks tend to receive, coupled with rising speculation about the election outcome. He noted that financial markets are often a reflection of traders’ short-term expectations rather than fundamental business performance.
“Trump Media is clearly being buoyed by election speculation,” Ritter said. “The stock price reflects who investors think will win in November, and right now, that pendulum has swung toward Trump.”
Further supporting this hypothesis is the flurry of bullish options activity centered around November 15, just days after Election Day. According to Michael Block, co-founder of AgentSmyth, this is evidence that traders are making selective bets on Trump emerging victorious.
Despite the current rally, TMTG’s stock price is still far from its March peak of $66, and the value of Trump’s holdings has yet to recover the $2 billion in losses incurred since that high point. Nevertheless, the recent surge is a welcome relief for investors who had feared the stock would continue its downward trajectory.
Beyond the election, another factor contributing to the stock’s rise is Trump’s decision to hold onto his shares. When the lock-up period preventing company insiders from selling their stock expired, there was widespread speculation that Trump might sell off his stake. Such a move could have tanked the stock. However, Trump has publicly assured investors that he has no intention of selling, which has provided stability to the stock price.
“If Trump was leading in the polls but signaled that he planned to sell his shares, the stock wouldn’t have risen as sharply as it has,” Tuttle pointed out. “The fact that he hasn’t sold, and has explicitly said he won’t, creates confidence for the market.”
Yet, despite the rally, skepticism remains. Ritter and other market experts continue to argue that the market is grossly overvaluing Trump Media. Without a clear business model or a plan to generate sustained profits, many believe that TMTG’s current valuation is inflated.
“At the current stock price of around $25, this company is overvalued by an estimated 1,000%,” Ritter warned. “It’s entirely possible that, in the long term, the stock could lose 90% of its value if it doesn’t demonstrate a path to profitability.”
For now, the fate of Trump Media & Technology Group is tied closely to the political fortunes of its namesake. As the 2024 election draws closer, the stock will likely continue to rise and fall with Trump’s poll numbers, making it one of the most volatile stocks on the market. Investors, for better or worse, are betting big on Trump’s return to power.
