New York — Egg prices, a household staple often associated with affordability, have been climbing steadily for the past two years. Now, a perfect storm of factors—rising cases of avian flu and heightened holiday demand—threatens to push prices even higher, leaving consumers and grocers grappling with the fallout.
The holiday season, traditionally a time of increased grocery spending, is amplifying the issue. Stew Leonard Jr., CEO of the northeast grocery chain Stew Leonard’s, described the current market situation: “Thanksgiving dinner is the same price this year as last year overall, except for eggs. That’s the one notable spike we’re seeing.” The chain, which operates eight locations, has witnessed firsthand how this commodity’s cost is straining household budgets.
Egg prices surged by 30.4% in October compared to the same period last year, according to the Consumer Price Index. The spike comes as families prepare for holiday baking and feasts, which traditionally drive higher demand for eggs. Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, highlighted the seasonal trend, saying, “The holidays represent the peak retail sales season. Baking, cooking, entertaining—all these activities require extra eggs.”
Avian Flu’s Impact on Supply
While demand is skyrocketing, the supply of eggs has been under siege. Since January 2022, avian flu has ravaged poultry farms, significantly diminishing the egg supply. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, over 108 million birds have succumbed to the disease, with 75 million of those being egg-laying hens. This reduction has wiped out 8% of the nation’s total egg supply.
The situation worsened in October, with new outbreaks of avian flu killing 2.8 million egg-laying hens in key egg-producing states like Oregon, Utah, and Washington. The USDA estimates this loss translates to approximately 60 million fewer eggs in the marketplace. The agency has also revised down projections for egg production in the first quarter of 2025, signaling that high prices may persist well into next year.
Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, explained how the disease exacerbates price volatility. “Our egg prices ride the waves of avian influenza. Eggs are particularly susceptible to price fluctuations because of their sensitivity to supply shocks and strong consumer demand,” he said.
Grocers Struggle to Balance Costs and Customer Retention
As wholesale prices rise, grocers are left to navigate a delicate balance: how to manage slim profit margins while keeping customers loyal. The USDA reported that, as of mid-November, the average cost of a dozen large white eggs in New York’s wholesale market reached $4.23—a 54% increase from $2.43 in the same period last year.
Stew Leonard Jr. shared his challenges in setting retail prices: “I can’t go over $4.99 a dozen, even if our supplier raises prices. We’re trying to avoid a breaking point for customers, but it’s a tough year for the retail food industry overall. Expenses are rising faster than the market allows us to charge, so our margins are shrinking.”
Other grocers echo similar concerns. Steve Schwartz, director of sales and marketing for Morton Williams, a grocery chain in New York City, noted that their wholesale egg prices more than doubled in just a few weeks this past October. “Eggs used to be dirt cheap. Now they shoot up and never quite return to their original prices,” Schwartz observed.
Organic Eggs and Broader Ripple Effects
As conventional egg prices surge, the gap between them and organic or specialty eggs has narrowed. At some stores, organic eggs are now priced nearly the same as conventional varieties. Leonard Jr. noted that many consumers prefer organic eggs during the holidays, believing they enhance the taste of festive dishes. However, this shift in demand creates additional strain on an already stretched supply chain.
“Everyone suddenly wants the ‘better egg,’ which wasn’t forecasted, leading to shortages in warehouse stock,” Schwartz explained.
Egg-based products like pasta, mayonnaise, and baked goods could also see price increases in the future, Schwartz warned. “If egg prices remain high, the ripple effect is inevitable. So many items depend on eggs, and their costs will rise too.”
The current crisis underscores how interconnected the food supply chain is and highlights the challenges faced by both producers and retailers in mitigating the impact on consumers. As the holidays approach, households and businesses alike must brace for the potential strain of elevated egg prices on their budgets.
