New York — When Elon Musk finalized his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter in October 2022, the deal was widely regarded as an overpayment—perhaps even one of the most misguided business decisions in tech history. Almost immediately, Musk set about implementing sweeping changes that sent the platform spiraling into chaos. Advertisers fled, the company’s valuation plummeted, and Twitter—rebranded as X—seemed to be on a path toward financial ruin. Yet, in a remarkable turn of events, Musk may now be on the verge of achieving what many deemed impossible: restoring X’s value to the astronomical sum he originally paid for it.

Recent reports indicate that X is engaged in talks to raise capital at a valuation of $44 billion, potentially bringing the company back to its original purchase price. However, sources cited by Bloomberg caution that these negotiations remain fluid, and there is no certainty that X will ultimately secure that valuation. Regardless of the outcome, the discussions signal a surprising shift in momentum for the social media platform, which just months ago appeared to be in dire straits.

A Rebound in Advertiser Confidence

One of the most significant factors fueling X’s resurgence is the tentative return of major advertisers. Following Musk’s takeover, X faced an exodus of advertisers alarmed by a surge in hate speech and the appearance of their ads alongside extremist content. The situation reached a tipping point when multiple reports exposed instances of pro-Nazi content appearing near brand advertisements, prompting a swift and dramatic withdrawal of ad revenue.

Under mounting pressure, X took steps to mitigate the damage, including making some pro-Nazi accounts ineligible for advertisements. While such actions did little to repair the broader perception of Musk’s content moderation policies, they appear to have been enough to lure back certain corporate heavyweights. Tech giants Amazon and Apple, two of the most influential advertisers in the world, are reportedly reinvesting in X campaigns—a striking vote of confidence that has undoubtedly contributed to the platform’s recent financial rebound.

Further bolstering X’s recovery is the shifting landscape in its debt market. A group of bondholders, who were previously stuck with deeply devalued X holdings, recently managed to offload billions of dollars in debt at 97 cents on the dollar. While the transaction still reflects the high-risk nature of investing in X—given the steep interest rates attached to the debt—it signals that confidence in the platform’s financial prospects is growing.

The Musk Effect: The Power of a Singular Vision

While the return of advertisers and a stabilizing debt market are important factors, the most crucial element behind X’s dramatic recovery is undoubtedly Musk himself.

X has not publicly commented on the reported fundraising efforts or the impact of Musk’s growing political influence. However, there is little doubt that Musk’s role within the Trump administration—where he now holds a position as a special government employee—has helped elevate the platform’s relevance.

With Donald Trump back in the White House, X has once again positioned itself as the primary digital battleground for political discourse. Musk has openly aligned himself with Trump’s administration, using his platform to amplify narratives favorable to the president while simultaneously attacking his political opponents. His frequent posts about immigration, the so-called “woke mind virus,” and other culture war topics have cemented X’s role as the de facto social media hub for the administration’s messaging.

Investors, it seems, are betting on Musk’s personal brand rather than the underlying fundamentals of X’s business. The valuation trajectory of X closely mirrors that of Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social. Despite posting meager revenue figures—just $3.6 million for all of 2024—Trump Media boasts a market capitalization exceeding $6 billion, largely due to its association with the former president. Similarly, X’s growing valuation appears to be fueled by Musk’s proximity to political power rather than its financial performance.

From the Brink of Collapse to a Surprising Resurgence

X’s recent turnaround is all the more astonishing given how dire its financial situation was just months ago. In October 2024, investment firm Fidelity valued X at just 20% of its original $44 billion purchase price. By December, that figure had climbed to 30%, but the platform was still a shadow of its former self in terms of valuation.

Musk’s radical overhaul of Twitter transformed the company beyond recognition. Shortly after taking control, he slashed roughly 80% of its workforce, reinstated previously banned accounts—including those belonging to white supremacists and conspiracy theorists—dismantled legacy verification, and weakened protections for marginalized groups. He also aggressively reshaped the platform’s content moderation policies, elevating the user-driven “Community Notes” system while gutting internal oversight mechanisms.

At times, Musk’s leadership style actively discouraged advertisers from returning. In a particularly notorious moment at the November 2023 DealBook Summit, he lashed out at Disney CEO Bob Iger and other advertisers that had pulled their campaigns from X, bluntly telling them to “go f**k yourself.” A week later, he publicly called for Iger’s removal, blaming him for Disney’s